OBAMA'S POLICIES AND HIS RE-ELECTION PROSPECTS

US foreign policy measures post terrorist attacks on twin towers in New York coupled with US citizen’s security concerns and fears secured the re-election of George W Bush in 2004. However, peoples disenchantment over considerable economic and human losses in its war with Iraq and Afghanistan coupled with credit crisis in 2007 and 2008 catapulted Obama in to the White house in 2008 elections.

The continued weakness in US economy, despite strong economic measures by Obama administration and Federal Reserve, has put the security concerns and foreign policy issues on a backburner for the ordinary US citizen. Obama has succeeded, to a great extent, in fulfilling his major foreign policy promises to the voters during the 2008 elections, by recalling all his troops from Iraq, killing Al Qaeda founder and terrorist Osama bin Laden in Pakistan and revitalizing his countries fight against Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Obama and his economic team including Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke have taken a few aggressive measures to mitigate the financial crisis, that included $862 billion stimulus program, investing in public works projects to generate employment, slashing short-term interest rates to zero, offering loans to cash-strapped banks, Quantitative Easing in two tranches and bought Treasury and mortgage bonds to push down interest rates and calm financial markets.

However, economy proved weaker than expected; Obama’s stimulus program had its share of weaknesses; his inability to overcome political imbroglio and obstacles to push for more government spending or tax cuts to stimulate growth; Obama’s prioritization for overhauling the nation's health care system did not propel the anticipated economic growth, as expected of his administration. Moreover, Obama's 2009 stimulus program proved to be a boon to corporate, financial institutions and fuelled a rally in financial markets without a desired impact on country’s economy and unemployment. Obama and his team spent major component of stimulus package on public works projects that were slow to get going and generate adequate jobs. Obama and his team failed to learn from Japanese unsuccessful experience of investing in Public works projects in the 1990’s which led to even larger deficits and debts without propelling the desired economic growth and unemployment. The unemployment rate is at a recession-level of 8.6 percent, up from 7.8 percent when Obama took office in January 2009.

Nevertheless, the economy is still struggling to recover from the Great Recession of 2007-2009; the housing market remains weak, unemployment rate is up and a debt crisis in Europe is threatening US economic growth in 2012. Zero interest rates have hurt retirees and savers without delivering many economic benefits. Consequently, 60 percent of American adults disapprove of Obama's performance on economic issues, based on an Associated Press-GfK poll of American adults.

However, everything is not lost for President Obama.

On economic front, some economists expect economic growth to pick up to 2.4 percent in 2012. That would be an improvement from the under-2 percent growth expected for 2011. But the economists foresee little improvement — a dip to 8.4 percent — in the unemployment rate by Election Day. Perhaps Obama can take heart from President Ronald Reagan's experience. The unemployment rate was 8.5 percent — a tick away from where it was last month — a year before Reagan was re-elected in a 1984 landslide.

On political front, Obama’s re-election rival, in all probability will be Republican front runner and former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, a Harvard Business School graduate. Mitt Romney served as CEO of Bain & Company, a management consulting business in Boston, and Bain Capital, a spinoff investment firm, in the 1980s and 90s. Given Romney’s corporate background and his economic plans to repeal the Obama administration's health-care law and cutting the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent, the US younger generation, who are on the forefront of the “OCCUPY WALL STREET” movement, may prefer Obama over Romney.

Moreover, Obama will win hands down when it comes to the electoral gains emanating from Foreign policy and internal security successes.

Perhaps, Time is a better judge and unforeseen events in 2012 may also have a bearing on the outcome of the impending US presidential elections.

SAFETY INFORMATION ON FOOD ADDITIVES

Junk foods have become a part of our modern day living. Unfortunately, junk foods are known to possess high calorific values apart from harmful chemical additives such as Sodium nitrite, Saccharin, Aspartame, Caffeine, Olestra, Food Dyes/ Artificial food colors etc.

The following hyperlink furnishes a detailed summary of the safety of all food additives encountered in our day to day lives and a list of banned food additives.

http://www.cspinet.org/reports/chemcuisine.htm

GUIDE TO TEAMS & TEAMWORK

Useful article for professionals.


Article can be accessed from the hyperlink: Guide to Teams & Team work

WISDOM OF SUCCESS

Many of us, at times in our lives, must have enjoyed Success and basked in its glory. However, Success is a big teaser. Many a times, it neither lasts long enough to give contentment to one-self nor encompasses all other important facets of our lives.

Interestingly, most of us dread to admit that they are contented with socially acknowledged Success achieved in their lives. The reasons can be many; firstly, the definition of the word “SUCCESS” may mean different for people from diverse socio-economic environments, societies and countries; secondly, the duration of the Success shall matter; and finally, did the Success in an aspect of one’s life positively metamorphose the other important facets of his/ her life?

Interestingly, SUCCESS is a word which has the most vibrant interpretations and has wide ranging standards of measurement. The dynamics can be attributed to quite a number of variables, the prominent among them being the subtlety of bench marks and the standards that measure them (yardsticks).

Nevertheless, externally acknowledged “bench marks” are seldom permanent but are invariably supple, relative and at times is unleveraged. The above conundrum is similarly applicable to “Yardstick” too. Hence, it is irrational to focus on such socially acknowledged bench marks and yard sticks of success and presume that such successes gives perpetual conscious satisfaction and unconscious happiness.

The ultimate goal of a self is to live with perpetual conscious satisfaction and unconscious happiness which emanates from a SUCCESS encompassing all spheres of life that is identified, defined, executed and evaluated by self rather than others.

Similar article by Brahmakumaris "ANALYZING SUCCESS AND FAILURE" can be accessed in Vijay Karanam's other blog http://vijaykaranam.blogspot.com/.

BUBBLE SIGNALS IN GOLD INVESTMENTS

The price of Gold has been rising uniformly in the past decade and has returned an average of about 17% annually during that time. However, hedge funds and HNI’s (high net-worth investors) have been cutting down their investments in gold over the past few months. It is estimated that roughly $4.5 billion had been disinvested by hedge funds and HNI’s due to which gold prices have been very volatile of-late. Let us check out some of the signals, what hedge fund managers & HNI’s have been wary of.

Increased strength of US Dollar

Federal Reserve’s discontinuation of Quantitative Easing (Infusion of excess liquidity in to the economy) and improved US macro-economic indicators indicates a swift recovery of US economy. US economy’s strength coupled with debt crisis in European Union, slowing down of economies in developing countries and recession fears in other developed nations has been strengthening US dollar. Many investors who used gold as an effective hedging instrument against weak dollar when US economy was struggling, have started showing confidence in US Dollar and US economy  by switching over to dollar investments from gold.

Low Inflation and high interest rates

Inflation across developing nations is showing signs of moderation to more acceptable levels due to slowing down of economic growth in majority of developing and developed economies. Debt crisis and stopping of quantitative easing has resulted in high interest rate environments in many countries. Investors and fund managers, who used gold as a hedge against inflation, have started switching to debt instruments and US Dollar.

High level of speculation in Yellow metal and wider interest in street

The speculative investment patterns, large investor base, trading volumes and volatility in gold prices can suggest the formation of gold price bubbles. Unprecedented and wider interest in any instrument is a big sign that the price has peaked and may be set for a major slide. There are lessons from the recent past regarding the fallout of high speculative investments viz., bursting of the technology bubble a decade ago and stock market capitulation in 2007 & early 2008.

Abstract

There are strong signs that the gold has peaked and might even crash in the near future. It is impractical to predict the time frame for the burst of the Gold bubble. Hence, if you are planning a new investment in gold, think twice about buying it now; if you do own gold, then review your investment strategies at the earliest.BUBBLE SIGNALS IN GOLD INVESTMENTS

CHRISTMAS – OCCASSION TO CELEBRATE & INTROSPECT

As we decorate the Christmas tree, let us remind ourselves.

The tree is a symbol of humanity.

The trunk is when we were all united in one religion of peace, love and truth.
We then divided into branches of different religions and then each religion divided into twigs.
The leaves of the tree represent each soul of humanity.
The Shining Star on the top is God who is now giving us the message to unite once again.

As we decorate the tree, let us decorate the soul with virtues of compassion, forgiveness and trust.

Santa Claus symbolises The Supreme God Father, who comes in these times of darkness, into the dirty old world (chimney), to give us gifts of Purity, Power and Peace.

Christmas is the time of Angels

We have always looked for our guarding angel, one who would always be there for us, guide us and love us.
Today let us start becoming an angel instead of looking for angels.
When we remember our original nature of love and purity, we accept each one as they are.
We love them and our love and acceptance protects them and empowers them.
We then become an angel to them
When we live by our virtues, we are angels to each one around us.

Christmas is a reminder for what Jesus Christ lived for - Love and Forgiveness.


(Article courtesy: Postive reflections by Brahmakumaris, Partly edited by Vijay Karanam)

NEED OF THE HOUR FOR INDIAN ECONOMY - INFLATION ADJUSTED BONDS/ SECURITIES

Indian house-holds fascination for GOLD for its ornamental value is comprehensible as it is a part of Indian culture and tradition. However, of late, Indians have started buying GOLD as a hedge against inflation, thus enormously increasing the physical gold imports causing a huge trade deficit which is resulting in ever increasing India’s fiscal deficit. Gold imports are next only to Crude oil imports and if this import component is not reduced, it will have a wide ranging direct and indirect impact on both macro and micro levels of economy.

Gold demand and imports can be reduced partly, if Government issues Inflation indexed bonds/ securities akin to the instruments in place in the developed economies viz., US, UK, France, Italy, Canada etc,. It can be a good instrument to hedge against inflation for investors.